My daughter's sick again a day after I've taken a day off to get over my own cold. I'm not sure who gave who a cold here.

I'm told that after kid #1, the colds don't come quite as fast or furious. I hope this is the case.

The big Quinnipiac poll shows Obama up by 15 (!) in PA, and by high single digits in FL and OH. Unless we hear more, I'm going to treat those as outliers. I think Obama is probably up by 8-10 in PA, 5-6 in OH, and 3-4 in FL. Voter suppression (aka fighting voter fraud) won't be as big a deal with Dem governors in PA and OH.

However, this means McCain is going to have to choose between PA and MI. I'd choose MI, to be honest -- only one major media market as opposed to three (NYC for NE PA, Philly, and Pittsburgh) -- plus there's a large number of voters in the Detroit suburbs that need to regard Kilpatrick as Obama's best bud. The EV tally is about equal between both.

Of course, given that McCain's been totally blindsided by Obama in NC and IN, and that the campaign's response has been to whine about the poll demos (with no specifics), I suspect the McCain camp's probably in a holding pattern until Palin gets through the VP debate without drooling on herself. We'll see McCain's offense against the Kerry states limited to either PA/MI, MN, and NH. After that, McCain is pretty boxed in.

He's losing big in IA, losing in NM, and starting to lose in VA and CO. He has nothing in NC and IN, and things aren't looking so hot in OH and FL. Even WV and MO are starting to look a little too pink for McCain's taste.

The Ted Stevens trial is continuing.

A nice guilty verdict around Oct. 15 would be a gift from Heaven for Harry Reid.